Indian experiencing faster-than-expected recovery
Rising demand and falling infection rates have tempered S&P Global Ratings’ expectation of COVID’s hit on the Indian economy, having it to revised the real GDP growth to negative 7.7% for the year ending March 2021, better than the negative 9.0% forecast previously.
“Our revision reflects a faster-than-expected recovery in the quarter through September. We keep for now our forecast of a 10% rebound in the fiscal year 2022 (ending March 31, 2022) off the current year’s low base,” said S&P in its latest review of the Indian economy on 15 Dec 2020.
“It is no surprise that India is following the path of most economies across Asia-Pacific in experiencing a faster-than-expected recovery in manufacturing production,” said S&P Global Ratings Asia-Pacific chief economist Shaun Roache.
Manufacturing output was about 3.5% higher in October 2020, compared with a year ago, while the output of consumer durables rose by almost 18%. This recovery underscores one of the more striking aspects of the COVID-19 shock–the resilience of manufacturing supply chains.
Again, as with demand, some slowing of output momentum has emerged more recently, it added.
India learning to live with the virus, even though the pandemic is far from defeated, believes S&P. Reported cases have fallen by more than half from peak levels, to about 40,000 per day.
As in many other economies, the demand for goods, not services, drives India’s recovery, it pointed out. #economy #manufacturing #demand /fiinews.com
