Trump: Advantage India!
Rise of President elect-Donald Trump and what it holds for India? By Girija Pande Chairman Apex Avalon Consulting, Singapore, and co-authored a book on India & China titled ‘Silk Road Rediscovered’.
As the world watched in awe yet another Brexit-on-steroids happened!
Beating all pollsters, pundits & literati, Donald Trump won over a more experienced and better known Democratic candidate to become the 45th President elect of USA.
There are many lessons for us in Asia from this unexpected event.
Traditional liberal Western democracies are currently undergoing a major churn in societal values and outlook. Oft touted benefits of globalisation, free trade and immigration has given way to a frightened fortress mentality.
Opening borders to trade and immigration conjures up visions of lost jobs fuelled by nationalism and very often threats of terrorism.
Widening income inequality is viewed as an example of the “wicked establishment/elites” writing rules in their favour.
Wiley Politicians often backed by half-truths purveyed via rampant and ubiquitous social media, have played on this fear. Consequently anti-establishment views prevail which challenge “received wisdom” of the last few decades.
A new phase of social and economic narrative is upon us whose outcome is difficult to predict.
It’s against this backdrop that we need to view Trump’s ascendancy to power.
He presented himself as a non-political successful business person who owed nothing to any lobbies! His agenda was not a Republican agenda and cut across party lines to make it more palatable to most.
Shorn of electoral cacophony his message (below) was simple and lapped up by voters – both democrats and republicans.
#America first i.e. narrow and inward looking policies suited to American needs for better paying jobs. Play down American global role in trade or defending allies. Control immigration including building the famous border wall with Mexico.
#Regulatory capture by Washington elites created uneven playing field for bulk of Americans and this “swamp needed to be drained”.
#Make in America – by sharply cutting taxes and regulations – including repeal of Obamacare Care legislations while spending nearly US$1 trillion on antiquated American infrastructure and strengthening homeland security and Defence.
India must view this change from both perspectives – political and economic ties. Politically Trump’s recent utterances seem to favour continued expansion in relations with India as it is seen in a bipartisan way of being a counterweight to China by both parties in the US.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s standing as a strong, decisive, business friendly leader will stand him in good stead with the incoming White House incumbent.
Increased Indo-American cooperation in Defence and counter terrorism and closer partnering in global governance could well be on cards.
The picture is, however, mixed in the economic area. Growth in the US is expected to accelerate due to Trump policies and that will open avenues for Indian exports which are seen as non-threatening.
However, restrictions on H1B visas for Indian IT companies could create problems.
Make in America could focus American Multi-National Corporations’ in their home countries and may disadvantage Modi’s Make in India Programme.
While Trump has categorically ruled out participating in America-led and trade-based Trans Pacific Pact (TPP), India will have to choose the Chinese-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade pact so that it is not shut out of intra-Asia trade.
India has been very reluctant on trade pacts generally but given the winds of anti-globalisation in the Western world, it is imperative it joins this Asian trade pact.
Traditional anti trade lobbies in India will need to understand this changed environment in the new Trump era. fii-news.com
