Competition is expected to intensify over the next 2-4 years, says report
The ecommerce market in India is projected to expand to approximately US$172.90 billion by end of 2029 from its 2024 value of US$114.55 billion, growing at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2025 to 2029, according to an industry report being offered on ResearchAndMarkets since 7 Jan.
It was expected to grow by 9.8% annually to US$125.78 billion in 2025, said the report, “India B2C Ecommerce Market Size & Forecast by Value and Volume Across 80+ KPIs – Databook Q4 2025 Update”.
The ecommerce market in the country has experienced robust growth during 2020-2024, achieving a CAGR of 10%.
Competition is expected to intensify over the next 2-4 years as large retailers broaden digital operations and quick commerce platforms compete with horizontal marketplaces for both share of wallet and share of immediacy.
Regulatory developments, including discussions around the Digital Competition Bill, may influence platform-seller dynamics and pricing practices. ONDC is likely to expand participation by smaller sellers and service providers, adding a new layer of competition. Consolidation among vertical specialists and selective expansion by conglomerates will shape market structure.
India’s ecommerce market is marked by high competitive intensity, shaped by a multi-format ecosystem that includes horizontal marketplaces, quick commerce, vertical specialists, and omnichannel retailers. Large platforms such as Amazon India, Flipkart, and Myntra compete with value-driven players like Meesho and Jiomart. In contrast, quick commerce platforms Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart, and Zepto have expanded into discretionary categories.
Offline retailers, including Reliance Retail and Tata Digital’s Croma/BigBasket ecosystem, are integrating physical and digital channels, increasing competition across electronics, grocery, and fashion. Growing adoption in Tier-2/3 cities is broadening regional competition, especially among sellers and smaller brands entering marketplaces.
Key Players and New Entrants
Large conglomerates continue to shape the competitive landscape. Reliance Retail strengthens cross-category reach through Jiomart and its brand portfolio, while Tata Digital consolidates digital assets via BigBasket, Tata Neu, and Croma. +Amazon India remains a major player in electronics, consumer goods, and logistics infrastructure.
Meesho has emerged as a leading low-cost marketplace, gaining traction with unbranded and MSME-led categories. In new entrants, ONDC has attracted buyer-side apps like PhonePe’s Pincode and Paytm, widening the network for small sellers. D2C brands across beauty, home, and food categories continue to enter the market, supported by lower barriers to onboarding to marketplaces.
Recent Launches, Mergers, and Acquisitions
Key activity over the past year includes the continued integration of Blinkit, which Zomato acquired in 2022, reshaping participation in grocery and fast-moving categories. Reliance Retail continued to acquire regional fashion and FMCG brands to strengthen its omnichannel offerings, as reported in its 2024 business updates.
Amazon expanded its local stores partnership program and logistics capabilities, while Flipkart deepened partnerships with kirana stores for last-mile delivery. Quick commerce players announced collaborations with leading FMCG firms to expand their express delivery channels, reflecting broader category diversification.
India’s ecommerce adoption is expanding sharply beyond Tier-1 cities as Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), especially UPI, Aadhaar-based KYC, and ONDC, reduces entry barriers for both consumers and small businesses. NPCI’s 2024 updates show continued UPI scale, with leading ecommerce platforms (Amazon, Flipkart, Meesho) reporting increased UPI share in transactions.
ONDC participation from players such as Paytm, PhonePe, Dunzo, and UrbanPiper is enabling smaller sellers to list products across multiple buyer-facing apps. The government push for digital inclusion (MeitY and RBI 2023-24 updates) is improving access to digital payments and online onboarding.
Logistics firms such as Delhivery, Ecom Express, and Shadowfax are expanding services to Tier-2/3 regions, reducing delivery gaps between metros and smaller cities.
Consumers increasingly use mobile-first purchasing as device costs fall (TRAI 2024 device and connectivity updates).
Ecommerce penetration in smaller cities will rise as ONDC stabilizes and UPI becomes further embedded in recurring online purchases. More SME-driven ecommerce activity is likely, particularly in categories like fashion, local grocery, and home products. This trend will intensify, as government DPI initiatives continue and logistics players expand rural coverage.
Indian consumers are shifting towards value-oriented ecommerce models, leading to the rapid expansion of platforms like Meesho and Flipkart, and to Snapdeal’s repositioning towards affordability.
Company disclosures through 2024 highlight growing adoption of unbranded and budget segments, especially in fashion, home, and beauty categories. Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive due to household inflation across food and essentials (RBI and Ministry of Finance 2023-24 commentary).
Marketplaces have deepened seller bases in low-cost manufacturing clusters such as Jaipur, Surat, Ludhiana, and Meerut, supporting an affordable assortment. Logistics innovations like Meesho’s “zero commission” model and Flipkart’s Kirana delivery network lower operating costs.
Value-first platforms are expected to strengthen their share, especially across apparel, footwear, home, and low-ticket electronics. Competitive intensity will increase as Reliance Retail continues to integrate Jiomart supply chains with its offline portfolio. The trend will intensify, affecting pricing, seller onboarding practices, and fulfillment models across the sector.
Quick commerce players Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart, Zepto, and BigBasket BB Now are shifting consumer expectations toward faster delivery and immediate-need purchases, said the report.
Urban consumers increasingly prioritize convenience for daily-use categories. Dense dark-store networks in metros, alongside improved route optimization and inventory orchestration, have made sub-30-minute delivery viable.
FMCG manufacturers are partnering with quick commerce channels to access incremental demand, as highlighted in 2024 earnings commentary from companies like HUL and Nestle India, which referenced stronger growth in e-commerce-led urban channels.
Quick commerce will extend into more discretionary categories, beauty, personal care, stationery, and small electronics, increasing Amazon/Flipkart competition at the “need-it-now” layer. Unit economics will continue to improve as players integrate advertising revenues and optimize dark-store operations. The trend will intensify in metros, though expansion into Tier-2 markets is likely to be selective and slower due to economic constraints.
India’s ecommerce landscape is experiencing increasing regulatory scrutiny around consumer protection, data governance, competition, and platform-seller relationships. The Consumer Protection (E-Commerce) Rules, updates from DPIIT in 2023-2024, and ongoing discussions around the Digital Competition Bill continue to shape platform behavior.
Growing marketplace scale has drawn greater attention to pricing practices, preferential listings, consumer redressal, and data handling. Complaints recorded by the National Consumer Helpline and government consultations reported by Economic Times and Business Standard through 2024 show a rising focus on return policies, dark patterns, and the clarity of discounts.
Increasing participation by domestic and global players, including Reliance Retail, Tata Digital, Walmart/Flipkart, Amazon, and Meesho, necessitates transparent, competitive practices. Platforms will enhance compliance functions, adjust algorithmic ranking disclosures, and adopt clearer seller communication protocols.
Seller onboarding and discounting practices will become more standardized, impacting smaller merchants’ platform strategies. This trend will intensify, particularly if the Digital Competition Bill is enacted, shaping the operating environment for large platforms, the report said. fiinews.com
