Attack on SWIFT could freeze $5trn in daily transactions
A groundbreaking economic analysis released on 3 Jan by quantum security firm Synergy Quantum of Delhi warns that nations face an unprecedented sovereignty crisis as quantum computers approach encryption-breaking capability, potentially exposing US$12.4 trillion in global digital assets by 2035.
The report, co-authored by CEO & Co-Founder Jay Oberai, Co-Founder Dr. Vipin Rathi, and Strategic Advisor Sudhir Rao, reveals that adversaries are already conducting “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” attacks — collecting encrypted data today for future decryption when quantum computers become sufficiently powerful, potentially as soon as 2028.
“This is not a future threat — it’s a present reality with future consequences,” warns Jay Oberai, Co-Founder and CEO of Synergy Quantum. “Every day without quantum-safe encryption is another day of accumulated sovereign risk. The data being stolen today includes military plans, infrastructure blueprints with 50-year lifecycles, and financial records that could destroy economies when exposed.”
The Clock Is Ticking
Recent breakthroughs underscore the urgency. Google’s Willow chip achieved below-threshold quantum error correction in December 2024, while IBM projects 100,000+ qubit systems by 2033. IonQ suggests cryptographically relevant quantum computers by 2028.
“The achievement of below-threshold error correction was the holy grail,” explains Dr. Vipin Rathi, Co-Founder. “What seemed like a 2040 threat in 2020 is now a 2028 reality.”
Meanwhile, regulatory pressure intensifies. The EU’s Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA) already mandates cryptographic agility. The US requires federal migration by 2035, while the UK demands high-priority system migration by 2031.
“We’re seeing a perfect storm,” Oberai continues. “Quantum capabilities accelerating, regulations tightening, yet 86% of financial institutions lack expertise to even evaluate post-quantum cryptography solutions.”
The Ross Anderson Prophecy
The report draws on Professor Ross Anderson’s security economics framework, demonstrating the challenge isn’t technical — it’s economic. Anderson showed that those who control protection (banks, governments) are not those who suffer from failures (citizens, customers).
“This ‘liability dumping’ creates catastrophic incentive structures,” Oberai explains. “Telecommunications companies face 20- to 30-year equipment cycles. Infrastructure built in the 2010s will still be operational when quantum computers can break its encryption.”
The post-quantum cryptography market will grow from US$1.9 billion (2025) to US$12.4 billion (2035). Yet this pales against potential losses.
“A successful quantum attack on SWIFT could freeze US$5 trillion in daily transactions,” notes Sudhir Rao, Strategic Advisor. “We’re talking about 100-to-1 return on security investment, yet organizations hesitate.”
Global preparedness varies dramatically:
• United States: US$500 billion defense quantum initiatives
• European Union: DORA creates immediate compliance pressure
• China: Sovereign quantum programs with national standards
• Singapore: Already deployed National Quantum-Safe Network
• France: €1.8 billion sovereign quantum investment
Sovereignty at Stake
The report warns quantum-safe migration is becoming technological colonialism. Nations without sovereign post-quantum capabilities risk permanent dependence on foreign solutions.
“We’re witnessing quantum geopolitics,” states Oberai. “Countries that navigate this transition maintain economic sovereignty and attract quantum-safe investment. Those that fail face ‘quantum vassalage’ — permanent dependence on others for digital security.”
The Synergy Quantum Solution
Synergy Quantum, with partnerships including Quantinuum, NVIDIA, Thales, Nokia, and Bosch, advocates “Sovereignty-as-a-Service” — helping nations build indigenous quantum-safe capabilities.
The company’s Luna SecureOne™ Stack provides sovereign deployment frameworks across critical sectors. Its SynQ Threat Intelligence Platform quantifies economic impact, enabling informed investment decisions.
“We begin with economic prioritization — which systems generate revenue, protect sovereignty, ensure resilience,” explains Dr. Rathi. “Technology follows strategy, not the other way around.”
Immediate Action Required
Sector-specific recommendations share common urgency:
• Government & Defense: Establish National Quantum Security Authorities by 2026
• Banking: Meet DORA compliance, implement hybrid QKD for high-value transactions
• Telecommunications: Integrate post-quantum security into 5G/6G networks
• Critical Infrastructure: Prioritize industrial control systems
The Price of Delay
Organizations postponing migration face “crypto-procrastination penalty” — compressed timelines increase costs 3-5x while reducing security effectiveness.
“It’s basic game theory,” notes Oberai. “Early movers set standards and capture markets. The shift to post-quantum cryptography will determine which nations maintain sovereignty in the digital age.”
International coordination remains fragmented. The NSA recommends pure post-quantum signatures, while Germany requires hybrid signatures. Different countries endorse different algorithms.
“Organizations navigating multiple standards gain competitive advantage,” observes Rao. “Those waiting for single global standard will be paralyzed.”
The Quantum Dividend
Early movers can:
• Export quantum-safe technologies
• Attract security-conscious investment
• Establish favorable standards
• Create new financial products
“Post-quantum security isn’t just defense — it’s competitive advantage,” emphasizes Oberai. “The first quantum-safe financial center attracts trillions. The first quantum-safe telecom network becomes global commerce backbone.”
Looking Forward
The window for cost-effective migration is closing. “The decisions made in the next 24 months determine digital sovereignty for 50 years,” concludes Oberai. “History will judge harshly those who knew the quantum threat was coming but chose to do nothing.”
Dr. Rathi warns, “Every encrypted communication today is a future vulnerability.”
Rao provides the bottom line, “This is US$12.4 billion to protect US$12.4 trillion in assets. Few economic decisions have been clearer.”
Synergy Quantum is a sovereign quantum security company enabling nations and critical infrastructure operators to maintain sovereignty in the quantum era. Synergy Quantum provides comprehensive post-quantum cryptography solutions. Fiinews.com
