Global slump impacts petroleum exports
Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$78.6 billion, growing at 4.9%, and non-oil exports to amount to US$73.9 billion, growing at 12%, during the fourth quarter of 2020-21, as compared to US$74.9 billion and US$65.9 billion, respectively, for the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
Consequently, aggregate exports for 2020-21 are forecast to amount to US$279.4 billion, witnessing a contraction of 10.8% over 2019-20. Non-oil exports are forecast to amount to US$256.8 billion, witnessing a contraction of 5.6% over 2019-20.
The fall in India’s exports of petroleum products could be attributed largely to the global slump in demand and especially in the transportation and logistics sectors, the Exim Bank said on 15 Mar 2021.
Considering the global contraction in trade due to pandemic, Non-Oil exports from India has been resilient. Despite serious disruptions and logistical constraints exports from India have remained upbeat.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter.
The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the quarter April-June 2021 would be released during the first week of June 2021.
The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank had developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country. #exports #manufacturing #investment #economy /fiinews.com
